If you beat the closing number by 1 point (on average) would you hit over 53%?

Iceman · Feb 8, 2006

I know this was somewhat asked the other day, but my question involves "that if you averaged the lines you bet and compared it to the closing line (consensus of top 5 books ) and you had a average of a one point edge on your plays, after say 500 hundred plays would you beat the standard vig(-110)? No handicapping involved.

D2bets · Feb 8, 2006

For hoops? Yes. You should hit 53.5-54%.

CHOPTALK · Feb 8, 2006

No you would not assuming that without the 1 point the plays would go exactly 50%, it would increase your winning percentage by about 2.75%

jwblue · Feb 8, 2006

I have heard this before but I don't understand it. Why does getting a better line correspond to winning a wager?

IS

D2bets · Feb 8, 2006

InSpades said:
I have heard this before but I don't understand it. Why does getting a better line correspond to winning a wager?

IS

In the immortal words of John McEnroe, "you can't be serious"!

Iceman · Feb 8, 2006

InSpades said:
I have heard this before but I don't understand it. Why does getting a better line correspond to winning a wager?

IS

Give you 2 big examples from tonight. I found a University of Detroit -3.5(-4 consenus eveywhere) and bet it with a half point edge and it won by 4( a push is instead a win). I had under 140 Florida (closed 138) game hit 139 (a loss is now a win). This doesn't happen much but if you can hit 50% over a hundred plays and take a few losses/pushes and turn them into wins, you hopefully become a winning player. I'm sure thier are better ways to explain it but basically it can elevate a 50% gambler to 53-54%, I beleive...

Salain · Feb 8, 2006

It's complete dependent on the sport and if it's spread or total. And how big each of them is. Without looking into it too closely, yeah you could be profitable so long as the total and spread are sufficiently low. Going from 20 to 21 on a 150 pt college bball game isn't worth it.

Just look carefully at how you're going to be getting this point.

Fishhead · Feb 8, 2006

ice man said:
Give you 2 big examples from tonight. I found a University of Detroit -3.5(-4 consenus eveywhere) and bet it with a half point edge and it won by 4( a push is instead a win). I had under 140 Florida (closed 138) game hit 139 (a loss is now a win). This doesn't happen much but if you can hit 50% over a hundred plays and take a few losses/pushes and turn them into wins, you hopefully become a winning player. I'm sure thier are better ways to explain it but basically it can elevate a 50% gambler to 53-54%, I beleive...

ICE MAN--You are absolutely correct.

Anywhere from 52-54% is a good figure.

Iceman · Feb 8, 2006

ice man said:
Give you 2 big examples from tonight. I found a University of Detroit -3.5(-4 consenus eveywhere) and bet it with a half point edge and it won by 4( a push is instead a win). I had under 140 Florida (closed 138) game hit 139 (a loss is now a win). This doesn't happen much but if you can hit 50% over a hundred plays and take a few losses/pushes and turn them into wins, you hopefully become a winning player. I'm sure thier are better ways to explain it but basically it can elevate a 50% gambler to 53-54%, I beleive...

or getting Vanderbilt +3.5 when -3 was consenus pretty much everywhere(they lost by 3). Oh those gambling gods, they must know I posted this. I have 3 situations like this and I haven't one in almost a week. :dancefool

Insiders · Feb 8, 2006

First things first. The Closeing line is far less important than the "opening" number. Second thing is was it the "right:side to begin with. Picking Winners is the MAIN thing.

cincy_ · Feb 8, 2006

Insiders said:
First things first. The Closeing line is far less important than the "opening" number. Second thing is was it the "right:side to begin with. Picking Winners is the MAIN thing.

Exactly.

For example, a game starts on Team A -6 over Team B. The lines moves to Team A -8.

A person who consitantly gets Team A -6 will beat a guy who consistantly gets Team B +8.

PS: To give credit where credit is due, I learned this from Fezzik years ago - even though I had to put up with a condescending attitude.

Dubpoet · Feb 9, 2006

Thats like saying take the public games at +1 on the spread and win??

Try capping your own line.

Iceman · Feb 9, 2006

I posted a similar question on Fezzik's place and a few of the sharper guys on thier (including Fezzik) said when "anaylzing your plays after the fact it is more important to compare the bet to the CLOSING line"

Insiders · Feb 9, 2006

ice man said:
I posted a similar question on Fezzik's place and a few of the sharper guys on thier (including Fezzik) said when "anaylzing your plays after the fact it is more important to compare the bet to the CLOSING line"

The Closeing line is just a number that has been "trampled" on by Gawd only knows who ALL day long.
You will find out that the "real" sharps and the "sharp groups" are looking for the BEST of the number at ALL times.
Now if the opener was the BEST of the number, do you actaully think that the closeing number, which might be as many as 2-4 points from the opener an by beating that number by a mere point you have the best of it?
Just think about it! I think you will see the point.

ElJefe · Feb 9, 2006

It won't matter.

The worst thing about trying something like this is if it works 5 out of 7 times the first week you do it, you will think it is easy money. If it was easy as grabbing a point here and there, everyone would do it.

jwunderdog · Feb 9, 2006

I would think in basketball adding a point to the closing # on either side would make you a long term winner. From what I understand the closing # hits closer to 50% then the openning. If one point doesn't make you a winner then the value of a 1/2 point being worth 3 to 5 % is thrown out the window.

jwunderdog · Feb 9, 2006

Now someone find me a book that is giving away free points!

Fishhead · Feb 9, 2006

jwunderdog said:
Now someone find me a book that is giving away free points!

SKYBOOK....free halfs everyday.....up to $300.

Also suggest investing in a MINIMUM of two monitors........this will enable you greatly in getting better numbers and with experience, the VERY BEST number the vast majority of the time.

-FISH-

ronaldn · Feb 9, 2006

CHOPTALK said:
No you would not assuming that without the 1 point the plays would go exactly 50%, it would increase your winning percentage by about 2.75%

I ran this situation through my program for this season. I checked it against home favorites. Here is what the results were:

Home favs this year are winning at .488
If give them an extra 1 point........ .526 or + .038
If give them an extra 2 ............. .572 or + .084
If give them an extra 3 ............. .598 or + .11
If give them an extra 4 ............. .629 or + .141
If give them an extra 4.5............. .644 or + .156
So for this study, 1 pt will add about 3.8% to your win percentage. A 4 pt teaser will increase your odds on each leg by 14.1%. A 5 pter, 15.6%. Biggest jump was between 1 and 2 pts.

Hope this helps.
Ron

nimue77 · Feb 9, 2006

IS that SIA your middling the shit out of?

ice man said:
Give you 2 big examples from tonight. I found a University of Detroit -3.5(-4 consenus eveywhere) and bet it with a half point edge and it won by 4( a push is instead a win). I had under 140 Florida (closed 138) game hit 139 (a loss is now a win). This doesn't happen much but if you can hit 50% over a hundred plays and take a few losses/pushes and turn them into wins, you hopefully become a winning player. I'm sure thier are better ways to explain it but basically it can elevate a 50% gambler to 53-54%, I beleive...